By way of demonstration of my recent thoughts on the college football polls and why tier level analysis is better. We had a big week of big games, and a lot of things have shaken out across the football landscape. My underdog tale came to an end as Boise State proved Western Michigan is still a MAC team. But what about the big dogs?
I doubt this will become a regular feature of the blog. Probably not a weekly one, because that’s not what you’re here for. Consider this a proof of concept. With that out of the way…
Tier S: Elite National Title Contenders (4 teams)
Texas (4-0)
Georgia (4-0)
Notre Dame (4-0)
Miami (FL) (4-0) (Bumped up to Tier S following continued dominant statements and a rising AP profile. This also provides more cross-conference variety.)
Tier A: Playoff-Lock Caliber (8 teams)
Alabama (4-0)
BYU (3-0)
Florida (4-0) (The biggest riser of the week and a great demonstration of the superiority of this style of rankings. They looked good handling Ole Miss this year, and showed they belong in the same class as the Rebels. We don’t have to worry about putting them one place ahead of Ole Miss or not, just put them in the same bucket.)
Indiana (4-0)
Iowa (4-0)
Ohio State (3-1)
Texas Tech (4-0)
Utah (4-0)
Let’s pause here for a moment to note that this system has 12-slots in the first two Tiers specifically because there are 12 slots in the playoff. One of those 12 playoff slots is reserved for a team from outside the Power 5. As things stand, that would mean BSU, which opens the debate about which of these eight teams gets bumped. That would probably mean BYU, who has a game in hand
Tier B: Contenders On the Bubble (10 teams)
Houston (3-1)
LSU (3-1)
Mississippi State (4-0)
Oklahoma State (3-1)
Ole Miss (3-1)
Oregon (3-1)
SMU (3-1)
Tennessee (3-1)
UCLA (4-0)
USC (4-1)
We’re only a week or two into conference play, depending on the conference. Most of those three-win teams have not yet begun to fight. There’s a lot of season left to sort things out, but at least you can look at this list and say, “Maybe these teams do deserve a shot. I’m not quite convinced, but these are the ones to watch.” Alternatively, you can look at teams like LSU and Ole Miss and say, “These teams have looked dominant, but they’ve stumbled and still need to prove are more deserving than an Alabama or a Florida.”
Tier C: Waiting for a Shot (8 teams)
Kentucky (3-1)
Missouri (3-1)
Penn State (3-1)
Duke (4-0)
Wake Forest (3-1)
Pittsburgh (4-0)
Virginia Tech (4-0)
Michigan (3-1)
Again, what we’re looking at here are the true bubble teams. They’ve showed major flaws, but you can’t completely count them out just yet. They’ve also showed flashes of brilliance, and they still have the potential to make a run for the 12th spot and a shot at writing their own Cinderella story.
Tier D: Best of the Rest (10 teams)
Boise State (3-1)
Wisconsin (3-1)
West Virginia (3-1)
Kansas State (3-1)
Texas A&M (2-2)
Arizona (3-1)
Louisville (2-2)
Nebraska (4-0)
Cincinnati (4-0)
Vanderbilt (3-1)
These are all dark horse teams that still have a good shot at an invite, but they need some help. They only have one loss to give and have to trust that handing out L’s will knock off the competition. Their fate is still in their hands, but they are definitely dark horses at this stage of the game.